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中國鐵合金網訊：美國各大銀行的經濟學家表示，美國國內生產總值（GDP）在今年大幅收縮后，要到2022年才能達到疫情以前的水平。
美國花旗銀行（Citi）董事總經理凱瑟琳•曼恩（Catherine Mann）今天代表美國銀行家協會美國銀行首席經濟學家經濟咨詢委員會發表了一份展望報告，她說：“到2020年底，我們仍無法從第二季度的深度下滑中復蘇。”。
該委員會預計，美國經濟今年將下降5.7%，明年將增長4.5%。該委員會預計，美國GDP最快將于2022年第二季度恢復到2020年前的水平。預計年底失業率將在10%左右，而第二季度預計為16%。
曼恩說：“我們看到的GDP已經夠糟糕了，但消費和投資情況更糟。”消費者信心維持低位，拖累了占美國GDP70%的這類支出。“消費者對工作保障和薪酬不確定，消費支出可能在一段時間內受到限制。”
未來幾個月的消費者行為仍不可預測，曼恩想知道的是，“需要多長時間才能讓大多數人感到足夠安全、逛商店、餐館和電影院？”
曼恩說，預計企業投資也將復蘇緩慢，并指出“企業將處于‘觀望’模式，拖累消費者。
經濟學家委員會預計，盡管消費者支出有望開始復蘇，但企業投資在第三季度仍將繼續下降，這有助于推動GDP在這三個月內進入正增長區間。
內容來源：翻譯自Argusmedia
原文內容：US economic recovery expected to take 2 years
US gross domestic product (GDP) will not reach its pre-pandemic levels until well into 2022 following a sharp contraction this year, economists with major US banks said.
"At the end of 2020, we still will have not recovered from the depth of the second quarter decline," US bank Citi managing director Catherine Mann said, presenting an outlook on behalf of the American Bankers Association's economic advisory committee of chief economists at US banks.
The committee expects the US economy to decline by 5.7pc this year, followed by a 4.5pc increase next year. The committee expects US GDP to recover to pre-2020 levels no sooner than the second quarter of 2022. The unemployment rate is projected to be around 10pc at the end of the year, from a projected second quarter high of 16pc.
"What we see on GDP is bad enough, but the situation for consumption and investment is worse," Mann said. Consumer confidence remains slow, dragging spending in the category that accounts for 70pc of US GDP. "Consumer spending may be constrained for some time, with consumers unsure about job security and pay."
And consumer behavior during coming months remains unpredictable: "How long will it take before most people feel safe enough to visit stores, restaurants and movie theaters?" Mann wondered.
Business investment is also expected to recover slowly, Mann said, noting that "businesses will be in a ‘wait and see' mode, trailing the consumer."
The economists' committee expects business investment to continue declining in the third quarter even though consumer spending is expected to begin to recover, helping to push GDP growth into positive territory in that three-month period.
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