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Nickel settled up by 1.9% at 909.40 as market are finding ever more evidence that the Indonesian ban on nickel ore exports introduced at the start of 2014 is finally starting to impact China's massive nickel pig iron (NPI) sector. Chinese stocks of nickel ore are falling. So too, everyone agrees, is actual NPI production, although the scale and pace of decline is difficult to pinpoint in what is a notoriously opaque part of the nickel supply chain.

Also China's imports of nickel are trending higher, particularly those of ferronickel, the most obvious substitute for NPI. Yet the market remains decidedly unenthused by these developments. On the LME nickel has joined in the cross-metals rally of the last couple of days but it is still the second-worst performer so far this year next to tin. Currently trading around $14,000 per tonne, three-month metal is pretty much where it was when the ban was first introduced. LME positioning data shows money managers holding a marginal net long. The alternative data series compiled by Marex Spectron shows investors positioned net short. 

The problem is that having been burned so badly last year, when nickel rocketed up to above $21,600 per tonne only to collapse again, few are prepared yet to recommit to the bull story. And they are unlikely to do so until they see tangible evidence of shortfall in the form of falling LME stocks. It was the inexorable rise in LME stocks last year that dashed bullish exuberance in this market. Technically market is under short covering and getting support at 888.7 and below same could see a test of 868.1 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 921.6, a move above could see prices testing 933.9.

Trading Ideas:
--Nickel trading range for the day is 868.1-933.9.
--Nickel settled up by 1.9% as market are finding ever more evidence that the Indonesian ban on nickel ore exports introduced at the start of 2014
--The International Nickel Study Group's latest monthly bulletin showed the global refined market in 25,000-tonne surplus in the first two months of this year.
--China's imports of nickel are trending higher, particularly those of ferronickel, the most obvious substitute for NPI.

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• [Editor:Yueleilei]