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Reuters reported that while the prospect of nickel supply tightness has “put a floor under prices,” a true recovery won’t happen until Chinese stainless steel mills increase their orders. When that happens, global stockpiles of the metal should begin to sink.

Benchmark nickel on the London Metal Exchange fell to six-year lows of $10 430/t last week on worries about demand, particularly after a tumble in Chinese equities.

Prices have climbed back to around $11 500 yet remain at just half the $21 625 hit in May 2014 after Indonesia banned nickel ore exports.

The sell-off that followed that peak was triggered by suppliers in the Philippines who moved to supply ore to Chinese smelters, which produce nickel pig iron, a cheaper alternative to refined nickel that costs around $15 000/t to make.

Chinese nickel pig-iron producers are losing money and have cut output.

Analysts estimate China’s nickel pig-iron production fell about 25% year-on-year between January and May to below 170 000 t.

Jim Lennon, senior commodities consultant at Macquarie, commented:With Chinese nickel pig iron production falling sharply you are seeing the market gradually move into balance, possibly into deficit.

• [Editor:Juan]