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Although a recovery from the average monthly level in Q4, Jan's RMB new lending (RMB738bn) was substantially lower than DB and market expectations of RMB900-1000bn. Partly due to the weaker-than-expected lending activities, M2 growth also slowed to 12.4% yoy in Jan, down from 13.6% in Dec and lower than the consensus forecast of 13.7%. These numbers may be seen as a disappointment by some investors, but we are less worried. We believe these numbers partly reflect the PBOC's response to better-than-expected real economic conditions (i.e., a positive reason for it to remain a bit more hawkish than expected), and partly reflect the Chinese New Year effect. We expect monthly lending to recover further to RMB800-900bn per month in February-March.

As we discussed in the last few days, the stronger-than-expected China PMI, as well as improving global indicators such as the Eurozone PMI output index and US manufacturing ISM, suggest that the near-term economic deceleration may not be as sharp as previously thought. We believe this factor, together with the higher-than-expected CPI inflation in Jan and early resumption of capital inflow, helped to keep the central bank a bit more cautious in guiding monthly new lending than the market had expected. If the main reason for the PBOC's hawkish bias is a stronger-than-expected economy, it should not be viewed as a negative. In addition, we think the Chinese New Year effect is another important reason that slowed the lending activities in January on a yoy basis. Due to the timing of this year's CNY, there were four fewer working days in January than last year for banks and demand for loans was also lower than normal due to the holiday factor. We expect monthly new lending to recovery further to RMB800-900bn/month in February and March.

• [Editor:editor]