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Summary

The U.S. International Trade Commission is investigating the global aluminum trade.

Alcoa stands to be the beneficiary of a positive decision to enforce tariffs on this global trade.

This type of upside would mirror that of U.S. Steel, which received a positive trade case decision a few months ago and has since skyrocketed.

There are not many times that investors get to spot a stock before a breakout, but I truly believe that's what is before us today. I was catching up on the news when I ran across a small Wall Street Journal article called "U.S. Launches Probe Into Aluminum Trade." This well-written article, in so many words, is breaking the news that the U.S. International Trade Commission is investigating the global aluminum trade and tariffs could be imposed on China to protect domestic producers. Light bulbs should be going off, because if the trade case decision comes back favorable, Alcoa's (NYSE:AA) stock is going to see rapid, rapid upside.

U.S. Steel's Sustained Upside

Early last year, I told investors, here on Seeking Alpha, that U.S. Steel (NYSE:X) could skyrocket on a positive trade case decision - and sure enough, it did.

Below is U.S. Steel versus Alcoa on a 1Y time frame. Both saw strong declines in 2015 and in January, but have rallied back to summer 2015 levels. I'm using U.S. Steel as the mirror equity because it is a leveraged domestic producer just like Alcoa. Alcoa has been the beneficiary of a general run-up in commodities, but U.S. Steel's catalyst has been far more specific.

• [Editor:tianyawei]