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[ferro-alloys.com]China's new era of environmental regulation could see its annual crude steel production fall to around 800 million mt by 2020, a 5.5% decrease from 2017, according to S&P Global Platts analysis.

At the same time, higher ferrous scrap generation and usage could displace some 50 million mt/year of iron ore, or 5% of import volume, as the move toward a greener steel sector brings a structural shift, with some blast furnace and oxygen route steelmaking capacity replaced by scrap-using electric-arc furnaces.

This could mean China's annual iron ore imports fall below 1 billion mt, the analysis showed. Given China's journey up the quality curve, the pressure is likely to be felt more by lower-grade iron ore producers.

According to the China Association of Metalscrap Utilization (CAMU), total domestic production of scrap is forecast to reach 200 million mt by 2020. Subtracting CAMU's target of 200 million mt of scrap availability from estimated crude steel production of 800 million mt, the analysis foresees 620 million mt of pig iron output for 2020. This would be a reduction of 95 million mt from 2017 and some 87 million mt lower than in 2016, when China produced 707 million mt of pig iron. The outlook implies some 95 million mt of hot metal could potentially be produced using scrap.

China's steel sector supply-side reforms have been quicker and more successful than many imagined when the program to slash 150 million mt of steel capacity over a five-year period was launched in early 2016. The reforms, designed both to cut pollution and trim overcapacity, are ahead of schedule, with just 30 million mt of capacity still to be cut by 2020, and are en route to producing leaner and more competitive steel and coal industries. Over and above the official target, some 140 million mt of illegal and polluting induction furnace capacity was closed last year.

China's 2017 surge in steel scrap exports, which reached 508,120 mt in September, is therefore thought unlikely to be repeated. These had fallen to 34,530 mt in March, according to customs data, as stocks held at IFs are eaten through.

China, the world's largest importer of recyclable materials, is now setting the pace for scrap-related environmental considerations with its April announcement of new import restrictions on 32 types of scrap, including stainless steel scrap, vessels, slag and auto bales by end-2019. This, "together with the very high quality thresholds in the Chinese scrap standards, will put great pressure on the scrap processing capacity of the global recycling industry outside China," said international recycling association, BIR.

• [Editor:王可]