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Benchmark three-month nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) surged to their highest value since 2011 as February came to a close, which shook global markets and exacerbated existing supply concerns.

 

Coupled with strong demand that has reduced stocks to multi-year lows in recent months, , benchmark three-month nickel rose 8.83pc in February to $24,747.50/t on the final trading day of the month.

 

Prices briefly retreated after 24 February.

 

"Russia accounts for 7pc of global nickel production," a market participant noted.The nickel market is already facing a supply-demand dislocation. The exponential growth of the electric vehicle (EV) sector has created huge demand for Class 1 nickel, while supply has lagged behind. Bagged briquette — the LME nickel grade most suitable for use in EV batteries — dominates LME nickel stocks, leading to a rapid drawdown of inventories and rising nickel prices as a result. On-warrant stocks declined by 15.92pc in February 2022, falling to 39,330t on the last day of the month.

 

This stress in global supply of Class 1 nickel is set to continue in the near-term, as large volumes of new high-grade nickel being produced in Indonesia via the nickel matte route is still months away from becoming available in warehouses. "There appears to be a time lag with nickel matte," the same market participant said. "A meaningful increase in nickel matte production is not anticipated to materialize before the second half of 2022."

 

The upward pressure on nickel prices will impact demand eventually, especially on higher levels of backwardation on the cash to three-month nickel spread. 

 

Moving into March, global nickel demand continues to be robust across both the stainless steel and EV markets. In top consumer China, the Association of Automotive Manufacturers (CAAM) expects the country's new energy vehicle (NEV) sales to increase by more than 40pc on the year in 2022.

 

Underlying nickel prices are consequently set to be supported by strong demand and tight supply fundamentals in March. (Argusmetal)