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CPI inflation fell to 2.1% yoy in March, down from 3.2% in February. It is in line with our expectation but substantially lower than the market consensus of 2.5%. On a mom basis, the CPI fell by a sharp 0.9%. This decline in CPI should help alleviate some market concerns on monetary and credit tightening.

This decline in CPI inflation reflects mainly the seasonal fall in food prices after the Chinese New Year, as well as the reduction in demand for pork and poultry due to the recent "dead pig incident" and the bird flu. On a mom basis, the prices of fresh vegetables and pork fell by 13.4% and 9.1% respectively. Non-food inflation was a very modest 0.1% mom or an annualized 1.2%. Give this very modest non-food inflation, even if food prices rise by an annualized 6% (higher than the historical average), the annual average CPI inflation will be only 3.2%, below the government target of 3.5%.

For April, we expect yoy CPI inflation to fall further to around 1.8%, as food prices continued to decline throughout March and thus the April average will likely be substantially lower than the March average. For H1 as a whole, we expect CPI inflation to be as low as 2.3%. Against this backdrop, we do not see major pressure for the central bank to tighten monetary and credit policies in the coming few months.

The PPI declined 1.9% yoy in March, vs. the 1.6% yoy decline in February. Sequentially the PPI remained unchanged. By sector, the prices of energy, steel, timber, and textile products were up marginally while non-ferrous, chemical, and cement prices were down modestly on a mom basis.

• [Editor:editor]