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Australia’s minerals exports are set to reach unseen heights for a second year, as a global crunch lifts the value of the nation’s coal and natural gas.

 

In a world bereft of readily available energy supplies — and increasingly disruptive volatile weather — the price for thermal coal has rocketed to a record just as global economic activity rebounds from Covid-related slowdowns. The loss of some Russian supply from world markets has compounded the outlook, in which prices are expected to drift down but remain, on average, at relatively high levels, the Australian Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources said.

 

Steady volume growth will also help boost the headline figure — which, if actualized, would mark a second consecutive year of earnings in excess of A$400 billion, the department said.

 

Beyond energy, iron ore earnings are expected to slip further, despite optimism about improving demand from China as Beijing doubles down on efforts to boost its economy and a forecast increase in volumes. With recovering supplies out of Brazil, as well as gains in output elsewhere, prices are expected to fall over the outlook period. The steelmaking material’s share of total minerals exports will drop to just over a quarter from almost a third in the prior period.

 

Higher global interest rates pose a downside risk to global economic activity and, by extension, resource and energy export earnings, according to the department. Income is expected to fall to A$338 billion in 2023–24, which would still be the third-highest ever, it said.mining.com