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Magnesium production capacity outside China is forecast to expand to 24pc of global supply by 2032, but supply risks stemming from the Chinese market are likely to maintain a firm grasp on global market fundamentals, delegates heard at the IMA World Magnesium Conference today.

 

At present, China accounts for about 90pc of global primary magnesium supply, with the US, Israel, Russia and a handful of others holding the remaining share. As a result, developments in China have a significant impact on availability and prices in Europe and the US. However, the ex-China portion is forecast to grow over the next decade at a time of an increasing push to diversify European supply chains and reduce reliance on singular sources across a range of critical metals.

 

"We are starting to see almost a new generation of primary magnesium projects pop up across the world," consulting business CM Group's director Alan Clark told delegates today.

 

By 2027, rest-of-world (RoW) production is forecast to account for 21pc of global supply at 284,000 t/yr, rising to 24pc at 400,000 t/yr by 2032, alongside a corresponding growth in China as investment drives production growth there, CM Group data show.

 

Southeastern Europe in particular has drawn interest as a site for primary magnesium production, with projects under development in Romania, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Serbia.

 

Verde Magnesium is currently redeveloping a brownfield site of a previously fully permitted project, it said. Production is set to begin at about 2,000 t/yr in 2025, scaling up to between 60,000-90,000 t/yr after 2030, project manager Alexandru Rosu told Argus.

 

MFE Magnesium for Europe is developing a green magnesium project at an existing and controlled dolomite deposit in Bosnia-Herzegovina.

 

However, there are major obstacles for European producers in scaling up production and competing with China, in particular energy costs and European tax legislation relating to carbon emissions. Therefore, an important factor is "what the European market will validate as a price for [a] domestic product, and here we are going to think about cost drivers and the demand drivers," Rosu told delegates.

 

If these drivers are headed in the same direction, then projects are feasible, but if they are decoupled as is the case now because of unprecedented high electricity costs, then it becomes impossible, Rosu added.

 

Other pipeline projects include Western Magnesium in the US, with a nameplate capacity of 30,000 t/yr, Alliance Mg in Canada, slated at 50,000 t/yr, and Latrobe Magnesium in Australia at 40,000 t/yr. Further projects in the Middle East are also expected to produce 40,000 t/yr in the long term.