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Brazil's grid operator ONS forecasts an average 3.4pc yearly increase in power demand from 2023-2027.

 

The operator estimates 2.7pc growth in demand for 2023, to reach an average of 71,735MW taking into account an expected 0.7pc increase to the country's GDP. For the 2023-2027 period the country would reach an average of 82,584MW/d considering a 2.2pc yearly increase to the GDP.

 

For 2024, the operator expects an average 74,359MW, followed by 77,063MW in 2025 and 79,938MW in 2026.

 

The forecasts consider slower growth in 2022 and 2023 because of inflation and high interest rates, compared with what was expected in the last quarterly review.

 

ONS announced its forecasts for the five-year period during a workshop held with power clearinghouse CCEE and government energy research agency Epe. Demand dynamics are impacted by factors such as weather and economic conditions. They expect less intense activity in 2023 because of an "adverse international scenario", fiscal concerns and the effects of monetary policy. Such factors led to the revision for GDP growth in 2023 from 1pc to 0.7pc in the calculations.

 

After 2024, a more favorable economic outlook both domestically and internationally is expected, leading to expanded domestic demand.