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Coking coal prices on a fob Australia basis edged up today on firm demand, but some buyers stayed cautious given an uncertain outlook.

 

The Argus-assessed Australian premium low-volatile hard coking coal price rose by $1.45/t to $258.25/t fob, while the tier-two mid-volatile price rose by 50¢/t to $237.50/t fob Australia.

 

In the fob Australia market, a Panamax cargo of Illawarra with a December laycan traded at $260/t fob Australia on 5 December. This trade was excluded from today's assessment as details about the laycan, specifications and counterparties were not confirmed. Some participants said the deal did not reflect an arm's length transaction.

 

The cargo may be for material with high ash of around 10.5pc ash, a trader said, Another trader assessed the high-ash cargo at a $2/t discount to a regular Illawarra cargo. Market participants assessed Illawarra and other premium mid-volatile (PMV) brands in the range of a 0-1pc or $0-2/t, premium to premium low-volatile (PLV) brands such as Saraji.

 

An international trader said that the "market seems a bit tight for PMV", citing no offer for January PMV cargoes from one major producer and no more availability of a similar cargo from another producer. Another Singapore-based trader agreed. "PMV should be slightly above PLV given Indian demand," he said. But he cautioned against a wide PMV-PLV brand differential, pointing out that "the market as a whole has moved higher over the past week as also seen in the futures market which settles against PLV".

 

We do not want to risk building up inventory or long-term positions amid the market volatility, a Singapore-based trader said, adding that end-users preferred to procure only when they have a need and around 1-2 months ahead of usage.

 

A bid for 35,000t cargo of Goonyella for January-loading stood at $260/t fob Australia on the Global Coal platform today, while another bid for 35,000t of February-loading Goonyella was at $260/t fob Australia. There were no offers.

 

Premium hard coking coal prices to India rose by 65¢/t to $274.25/t on a cfr basis, while second-tier prices rose by 50¢/t to $253.50/t cfr east coast India. First-tier coking coal prices to China were flat at $298.50/t on a cfr basis, while second-tier prices remained unchanged at $263/t cfr north China.

 

Seaborne trading activity was thin in the Chinese market amid tight profit margins. Both coke plants and steel mills struggled with profits as raw material costs continued to increase, with auction prices for coking coal concluding higher at the start of the week.

 

There was no interest for high-priced seaborne offers and cargoes with a far ahead arrival date, a Chinese trader said. Others agreed adding that Chinese buyers still preferred prompt-loading cargoes.

 

In the metallurgical coke segment, the market held mixed views on the possibility of another price hike. A major coke producer suggested that a third round oh increase could be proposed this week, citing that coke plants were still earning negative margins. But others were not expecting a further price increase, with a trader noting that "it could be proposed but might not be accepted since steel mills are not doing well either".

 

Fob Australia rationale

The fob Australia premium low-volatile index was based on an average of the day's surveys. A Panamax cargo of Illawarra traded at $260/t fob Australia on 5 December. The deal was excluded as sufficient details about the trade were not known. The market survey was in the range of $256.50-261/t and averaged $258.25/t.