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Structural changes in the hot-rolled coil (HRC) market could see the historical premium for north European material narrow, if not evaporate, compared with Italian in the coming years.

 

Fundamental changes in Italy's steel market, coupled with Germany's struggling economy, have seen Argus' northwest EU HRC marker trading at a discount to the Italian index for 17 trading days out of 32 so far this year. Italy was trading at premium of €7/t to northwest EU material on 14 February, the 12th consecutive day of premium.

 

The differential between the two indexes started narrowing from the second half of November, with Italy having traded at a discount in November-December as it historically would.

 

The relatively slower deceleration of Italian prices at the start of this year compared with NW EU HRC has been underpinned by domestic supply concerns and irregular import trade patterns.

 

The pending resolution to heavily indebted steelmaker Acciaierie d'Italia's (ADI's) ownership has resulted in its production dropping to less than 1mn t/yr and continuous order delays.

 

This uncertainty has meant buyers with sufficiently diversified European supply portfolios have still been willing to commit some tonnages to ADI, while smaller and medium-sized players have preferred to secure their requirements elsewhere. One large service centre said it is difficult to shift volumes from ADI because of "cheap prices" that can sometimes offset performance issues.

 

In addition, ArcelorMittal's Fos-sur-Mer in France, the EU mill that is most focused on supplying south EU markets apart from Italian producers, continues to operate with one blast furnace. Its second blast furnace was confirmed to have been off line since October 2023.

 

These factors have prompted remaining Italian producers to focus more on their domestic market, rather than to look towards the north. Likewise, northwest EU producers have continued to sell into Italy, but the premium has not been wide enough to attract much additional allocation as high transportation costs eat into margins.

 

Further to the domestic supply changes, irregular monthly import arrivals and concern about uncertain customs clearance timings and safeguard duty rates have resulted in many deeming imports an unviable and risky purchasing option. Italy's historical price discount has been driven partly by its dependence on cheaper imported tonnages.

 

Many of the lowest-priced imports in Italy, from Asian suppliers, would now be mostly for July customs clearance and come with expectations of a 6-10pc duty, according to market participants. Meanwhile, the higher-priced alternatives, such as Turkey, carry a small discount to domestic Italian supply that makes them largely unworkable.

 

Changes to the EU steel safeguard could contribute to a continued premium for Italian HRC, as the lowest-priced import options of recent months may end up with their own country-by-country quotas, meaning they will probably have smaller duty-free tonnages based on lower historical trade flow.

 

Italy has also typically had a more active spot market for coil, whereas north European producers have committed most of their volumes through longer-term contracts. As has often happened in recent years, reduced performance under these contracts has left northern mills with additional spot tonnages that can be more difficult to shift in a depressed market environment. This has prompted them to export more, but these export options now are limited by trade barriers and the need to compete with lower-cost producers in jurisdictions without duties. argusmedia