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【Ferro-alloys.com】: The US Government has decided against granting Australian a tariff exemption. What does this mean for the local aluminium sector?

A 25 per cent tariff has been imposed on Australian steel and aluminium imports into the US, effective March 12.

While this poses short-term challenges, it’s not all doom and gloom, with various ways Australia can navigate the change.

UNSW senior lecturer in the school of economics Scott French suggests policymakers should avoid the temptation to protect Australian manufacturers from foreign competition.

“I can already feel the push for protective tariffs to keep out foreign products competing with domestic production. I’m very, very wary of something like that because I find that Australia has done well by having very low trade barriers,” he said.

“We don’t want to go back to the experience from earlier decades where local manufacturing was very highly protected and very uncompetitive.”

Rather than enacting long-term protectionist policies, French said temporary and targeted support measures similar to Australia’s JobKeeper program during COVID-19 should be implement.

“You want to cushion the transition, but any measures need to be temporary and targeted, so I would think maybe something akin to JobKeeper we saw in COVID” he said.

“We want to keep things like the Tomago plant in operation because if it gets shut down, there’s a big fixed cost to bring it back up.”

UNSW business school Professor Maggie Dong highlighted several short-term strategies that businesses can implement to cushion the impacts of tariffs, including flexible contracting, nearshoring, diversification and financial hedging.

By adopting flexible contracting, companies can renegotiate pricing and terms as external conditions change.

“(A) flexible contract usually includes a clause allowing for quick renegotiation in the event of some unpredicted situations, like tariffs or supply shocks,” Dong said.

“So, I would say, especially for this Trump tariff, I think the short-term adjustments that focus on flexible contracting would be the first step.”

Flexible contracts allow companies to explore alternative markets or reconfigure business models to be less reliant on the US market.

Another effective strategy is shifting production closer to home to reduce reliance on US-dependent supply chains.

“Australia’s strategic location at the crossroads of the Indo-Pacific region puts it in a unique position to strengthen trade alliances and mitigate the impact of US tariff policies,” Dong said.

“By deepening engagements with growing Asian economies, Australia can diversify export markets and leverage its regional influence for better trade deals.”

US aluminium imports account for 10 per cent of Australian aluminium exports globally, making it the third highest importer.

South Korea and Japan import the most Australian aluminium with 34 and 23 per cent, respectively. Thailand is fourth, importing seven per cent of Australian aluminium.

Scott French said Australia could see increased trade with Indo-Pacific partners due to trade diversion effects.

“Australia already has trade agreements with most of its Indo-Pacific trading partners,” he said. “And so one thing you see is that when you get a tariff in one place, you have what you call trade diversion.”

“So I would expect trade to pick up between Australia and these other countries automatically.”

• [Editor:Alakay]