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Print[Ferro-alloys.com]China's economy is stabilizing, and if exports continue to see modest growth in the second half, then the pace of economic growth for the year is likely to be close to 7.5 percent, said a well known economist.
Fan Gang, head of the National Economic Research Institute and former advisor to China's central bank, made the remarks at a forum in Sanya, southern Hainan, Wednesday.
While China cannot tackle problems like excess capacity and bad loans in the short term, stable growth in the property sector, the auto industry and infrastructure mean the economy has stabilized and is rebounding, Fan said.
Data showed property investment in the January-July period rose 20.5 percent year-on-year, 0.2 percentage point higher than the rate in the first half. Vehicle sales jumped 12 percent, almost triple the race in the whole of 2012.
Double-digit growth is no longer realistic and a rate between 7 and 8 percent - the world's fastest - is a natural rate for China, he said, adding that a rate below 7 percent would bring risks of deflation. Double-digit growth indicated overheating, he said.
China's economic growth slowed to an annual rate of 7.5 percent in the second quarter, in line with the target for the whole year, but the trend has been downward for two consecutive quarters.
The Chinese economy does not lack liquidity, but due to a shortage of opportunities, new bank loans have not trickled into the real economy to spur growth, he said.
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