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GDP growth likely to decelerate in 2011 and medium term

Most Ecomonists believe that GDP growth rate will decelerate in 2011. Professor Cheng Siwei believes domestic consumption cannot rise quickly while international trade will slow on weak external demand. Dr. Wang Xin of the PBoC thinks that FAI growth will slow to 20% in 2011 and, in particular, residential investment will come off the high of 36% in 2010 to 20% in 2011. Mr. Li Jian of the Ministry of Commerce expects exports to grow 10–14% in 2011, down from 31% in 2010. all spoken in China Micro Economic conference last weekend.

In terms of medium-term outlook, Mr. Yang Yiyong of NDRC expects the annual average GDP growth target for the 12^th Five Year Plan (to be formalized at the March National People’s Congress) to be set at 7%, lower than 7.5% in the 11^th Five Year Plan. He also expects the target for an annual increase in the urbanization ratio to be set at 0.8ppts, lower than the previous peak of about 1.4ppts in the first half of last decade. These targets are broadly in line with our view that the government will recognize the increasing resource, environmental, demographic and external demand constraints for economic growth going forward. As for the structure of the economy, Mr Yang expects the government to aim to increase consumption as a percentage of GDP by 0.6ppts per year in the coming five years.

Mr. Cai Fang of the Social Science Academy believes that China is already close to the Lewis turning point in terms of labor supply. He expects that China’s old age dependency ratio to rise rapidly and the total working population to start declining from 2015. According to his estimate, in the past, 27% of GDP growth could be attributed to labor growth, and this “demographic dividend” will fade away soon; consequently, the economic growth potential will be lower in the future.

• [Editor:editor]